Thursday, January 19, 2012

And then there were four

OMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG. 
That is seriously all I have to say after the 10 CNN breaking news texts I received starting at 4am!

It is electrifying. It is fascinating. It is so beyond exciting, I can't even handle it. One. More. Second. 
I honestly don't know why all of this gets me so fired up...but none the less. It is time. 
Time for Ashley Salzwedel's take on the State of the GOP Presidential Primary. 
annnndddddd just in time for tonight's debate before South Carolina! CNN. 5pm PST

So A LOT has happened since my very first primary season update

We have gone from this...

  

PLUS him


To now this.....as of 9am EST this morning. 


The final four.
Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich.

Rick Perry just suspended his bid to become President of the United States and threw his support behind Newt Gingrich. 

In the same moment it was determined that Rick Santorum won the Iowa Caucus by 34 votes which means Romney's 8 vote Iowa Caucus win is now null and void. 

Curve ball!

Yesterday - when talking about the South Carolina primary (which is scheduled to happen on Saturday) all eyes were on Mitt Romney. 

Yesterday - Mitt Romney's name was etched in history books for winning both the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire primary. A first for a non-incumbent Republican.

Yesterday - analysts threw down. A win for Mitt Romney in South Carolina would all but seal the fact that he would be our nominee for President. See, South Carolina has picked the winner of every GOP nomination fight since 1980. That along with the fact he is two for two (Iowa and NH)...HUGE momentum. 

Yesterday - polls show Romney's once 19pt. lead is fast shrinking in SC. 33% Romney, 23% Gingrich, 16% Santorum, 13% Paul, 6% Perry.

Today? Yeahhhh....the history books will be re-written. Everything is about to change. 

-hang on...I think I may need a diet coke to reaaaalllyyy get me in the mood-

Okay. Better. Thanks.

Mitt Romney: If you have been following my updates which can be read here, here and here - you will already know most of what I am going to say. While he is incredibly presidential when it comes to debate performances and his ability to campaign/fund raise/organize an impressive ground game, I can't and won't vote for him. 
1. He is a flip-flopping Massachusetts moderate. 
He at one time or another supported a health care mandate in his state, supported the Wall Street bail out, supported the effort to raise the debt ceiling, appointed very liberal judges to his state bench and changed his once very pro-choice views and the fact he strongly supported gay marriage to fit his now conservative audience (it should be noted he still has not signed the Susan B. Anthony list pledge to defend life).
2. Faith. 
6 months ago I am pretty sure I would have told you the fact Mitt was a Mormon doesn't matter and wouldn't have any weight on my vote. I stand corrected. 
Not to say that the fact that he is Mormon makes him a bad person. In fact many Mormons are exceptional citizens -they love their spouses, raise respectful children, volunteer, give of their time and money...ect. However, Mitt Romney has an amazing platform so when he tells the American people that he is a Christian he isn't being truthful. The Mormon doctrine is 100% inconsistent with biblical Christianity. Bottom line: if I were to vote for Mitt Romney I would be validating his faith to those who may not know the difference and that can't be on me. 

Newt Gingrich: The big winner from today's events is clearly Newt Gingrich. He was just endorsed by Rick Perry who told supporters that while Newt is not perfect he does believe in the power of redemption and that there is forgiveness for those who seek God. A CLEAR message to evangelicals that is it okay to shift support. I mean, let's not kid ourselves. Speaker Gingrich has MAJOR baggage. But I would venture to say he is a conservative visionary...one that, with the recent boost of endorsements (Sarah Palin and Rick Perry) and a key debate hours away (his strength), could find himself at the head of  the "anyone but Romney" pack.

Oh 2 more things. 
1. He would TEARRRR Obama to shreds in a debate. Newt is a brilliant historian who is so skilled in debate.  Gets my fist pumping more than anyone else. You should see Nick - he flat gets up off the couch! He almost always earns line of the night and gets the most audience applause. 
2. Regarding elect-ability - if we were to see a Gingrich/Obama match up. I think Newt has a shot.  

Rick Santorum: HUGE day for Rick Santorum. The new winner of the Iowa Caucus. There is not much I dislike about him. He is a social conservative who believes strongly in the preservation of marriage between a man and a woman and protecting human life. He has vowed to stop Obamacare, protect Israel at all costs, sanction Iran should they acquire nuclear weapons (not a question of if, it's when), appoint conservatives to the bench, cut spending and entitlements..
His debate performances have gotten better. He had received some key endorsements from evangelical leaders. He is great with the media. 
I could go on and on. 

My worry is that he wouldn't be able to beat Obama in the general election which is only validated by poll numbers. As much as I like Rick Santorum. Really, I do. I think he will be out after Ron Paul.

Ron Paul: I really love how he has been able to excite a generation through his passionate constitutionalism and libertarian views . He is an economic scholar who blows the rest of the candidates out of the water with his knowledge. He is very much a believer in the free market and keeping government out of our daily lives. If elected, Ron Paul would allow young people to opt out of Social Security to make their own investments and would abolish the federal income tax and the IRS. Oh yeah, he also wants to get rid of federal reserve. The main problem lies with his views on foreign policy and his elect-ability - both of which scare me to death. 1. He is an isolationist. He wants to end the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, stop with the foreign aid and DRASTICALLY cut military spending. 2. His debate performances are outlandish. Yes, he is smart. Yes, he knows what he is talking about. Yes, he has ideas BUT he also makes crazy statements and isn't super articulate. I have a hard time picturing him in a head to head against the BEST orator of our time (Obama) and coming out on top. My money is that he is the next to go. 

Wow. That was fun. 

This is all part of the game..the fact that anything can and will change..

Watch the debate tonight. I guarantee fireworks and a totally new outlook tomorrow. 



2 comments:

  1. Seriously Ash, you need to be a political commentator on FOX News! You are THAT good! :) I'm leaning towards Newt Gingrich now...but we'll see ;)

    ReplyDelete
  2. I can't think of a better compliment...thank you! Made my year!

    ReplyDelete